Steve Hill * Portfolio
scoring_model · acquisition prioritization

Website Squirrel — Lead Scoring and CAC Prioritization Model

This was a practical growth model, not a research project. The goal was simple: score leads based on likely quality, write those scores back into HubSpot, and use them to lower CAC and make campaign decisions faster.

-60%
CAC reduction
15 hrs
Reporting saved / week
+15%
Profit contribution
48+
Campaigns scored

1. End-to-end flow

The model can be explained in four steps: collect the right signals, score lead quality, group people into clear tiers, and let marketing act on those tiers.

Step 1

Collect signals

Pull CRM, campaign, inquiry, and behavior data into one usable marketing view.

Step 2

Score quality

Rank leads by likely fit, likely value, and how strongly they deserve follow-up.

Step 3

Assign tiers

Write an A-D tier back to HubSpot so every team sees the same priority level.

Step 4

Trigger action

Scale good-fit acquisition, nurture the middle, and suppress low-value spend.

2. What the model actually answered

This page used to over-explain the math. The business questions were much simpler.

Who is worth paying more for?

Find the leads and audiences most likely to turn into profitable customers, not just cheap clicks.

Who needs more nurture?

Identify the middle tier that needs stronger follow-up before they are ready to buy.

Which segments should get less spend?

Spot the audiences that create activity without enough value so spend can be pulled back sooner.

3. The tier system

The important part was not the model label. It was giving marketing one clear way to prioritize people.

Tier A

High-value

Scale fast

Best-fit leads and customers. Higher confidence on conversion and longer-term value.

Tier B

Good nurture

Convert with help

Promising but not yet ready. Better follow-up and better messaging matter here.

Tier C

Longer nurture

Selective follow-up

Shows some interest but weaker fit. Better used for lighter nurture than aggressive spend.

Tier D

Low priority

Suppress waste

Low fit or low value. Do not keep funding acquisition here just because volume looks nice.

4. How marketing used it

The model mattered because it changed campaign behavior. These were the kinds of decisions it supported.

Push harder on Tier A

Bid more aggressively and route better-fit audiences into stronger offers because the model showed they were worth it.

Nurture Tier B smarter

Use a lighter, more educational sequence instead of forcing every lead straight into the same hard-conversion path.

Protect margin with Tier D suppression

Stop treating low-fit leads like growth. That alone helped lower wasted spend and tighten CAC.

5. Example output

A simple output table like this is what made the model useful to the marketing team.

Segment Primary Move Reason
Tier A acquisition Scale budget Higher predicted value justified more aggressive spend.
Tier B nurture Improve follow-up Good fit, but needed better sequencing before conversion.
Tier C leads Use lighter nurture Interest was present, but the fit and expected value were weaker.
Tier D traffic Suppress or exclude Low-value volume was inflating activity without producing enough margin.

What this unlocked

A clearer way to spend, route, and nurture. The win was not mathematical elegance. It was cleaner marketing decisions tied to better unit economics.

-60%
Lead CAC
15 hrs
Reporting saved / week
48+
Campaigns